Hong Kong’s stock market rose in September 2026 amid fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index successfully breaking the key resistance of 25,800. Tech and new energy sectors led the gains, and market sentiment gradually recovered. However, the historical high of 28,000 still poses significant resistance, and the interplay between technicals and capital flow will determine future trends. This article deeply analyzes the current Hang Seng trend and possible future directions from three dimensions: technical indicators, sector capital flow, and macroeconomic factors.
One、Hang Seng Technicals: Bullish Signals Emerge, 28,000 Resistance Awaits Breakthrough
From technical charts, the Hang Seng Index has shown an upward trend with fluctuations since late August, breaking 25,800 in the first two weeks of September—this is a key resistance since 2024. Technically, short-term moving averages (5-day, 10-day) have crossed above long-term ones (20-day, 60-day), forming a “golden cross” signal, indicating strengthened short-term bullish momentum. In the MACD indicator, both DIFF and DEA lines are above the zero axis, with DIFF rising and red bars expanding, showing ample bullish momentum.
However, 28,000, a historical high since 2021, still has strong psychological and technical resistance. The KDJ indicator shows the J value is near 100, indicating overbought risk; if it fails to break 28,000 effectively, a technical correction may occur. Also, trading volume during the recent 25,800 breakthrough was higher than before but not at 2023’s 26,000 level, showing capital inflow needs to strengthen.
1. Moving Average System: Short-Term Bullish Pattern Established
The Hang Seng’s moving average system shows the 5-day MA has stabilized above the 10-day MA, with the 10-day MA turning upward, forming a “bullish arrangement” with the 20-day MA. This usually means a positive short-term trend and optimistic investor sentiment. However, the 60-day MA is still below 25,800, so the long-term trend hasn’t fully strengthened. If the index pulls back to the 60-day MA, it may find support, but the risk of breaking below must be watched.
2. Support and Resistance: The Battle Between 25,800 and 28,000
25,800, the recent breakthrough level, has become new support. If the index pulls back near this level, capital is expected to buy on dips, with strong support. 28,000 is the next key resistance; historically, the Hang Seng has repeatedly met resistance here and fallen back. If it breaks through this time, it will open further upside, otherwise, it may enter range-bound trading.
Two、Sector Performance: Tech and New Energy Lead Gains, Capital Continues to Flow In
During the Hang Seng’s rise, tech and new energy sectors were the main drivers. In tech, internet giants like Tencent and Alibaba saw stock rebounds, pushing the Hang Seng Tech Index up over 3%. In new energy, stocks like BYD and CATL hit new highs, with significant net capital inflow into the sector.
1. Tech Stocks: Accelerated AI Commercialization, Earnings Expectations Support Prices
Tech stocks’ rise mainly benefits from accelerated AI commercialization. After domestic large models like MiniMax were included in Hong Kong Stock Connect, they surged 17% on the first day, sparking market discussion about the AI track. Also, companies like Tencent and Alibaba are implementing their AI strategies, improving earnings expectations and attracting capital. From capital flow, southbound funds have been increasing tech stock positions, with daily net buys exceeding HK$1 billion multiple times, showing investor confidence in tech stocks.
2. New Energy: Policy Dividends and Global Demand Support
New energy’s leadership comes from policy dividends and growing global demand. China’s “dual carbon” goals and increased demand for new energy products in Europe and the US have kept orders for new energy companies full. Leaders like BYD and CATL have sustained earnings growth, hitting new highs. In terms of capital, ETFs in the new energy sector have significant net inflows, showing institutional investors’ preference for the sector.
Three、Capital Flow: Southbound Funds Accelerate Allocation, Hong Kong Stocks’ Attractiveness Rises
Southbound funds, a key incremental capital source for Hong Kong’s market, have been active recently. August saw a monthly high for southbound funds, and the first two weeks of September continued net inflows, with cumulative net buys exceeding HK$12 billion. Capital mainly flowed into tech, new energy, and financial stocks, showing investor confidence in Hong Kong’s market.
1. Southbound Funds: Continuous Inflows, Preference for Tech and New Energy
Southbound fund inflows are driven by Hong Kong stocks’ valuation advantage, optimized Stock Connect, and mainland investors’ demand for global asset allocation. The Hang Seng’s current P/E is about 10x, below the historical average, offering high valuation value. Also, optimized Hong Kong Stock Connect rules (e.g., lower trading costs, expanded eligible stocks) have boosted Hong Kong’s attractiveness. In terms of capital structure, institutional investors’ share in southbound funds is rising, with a long-term value investment style, increasing allocation to growth sectors like tech and new energy.
2. Mainland Investors: Expected Tax Benefits Boost Hong Kong Stocks’ Attractiveness
Recent market rumors of Hong Kong Stock Connect dividend tax reform suggest mainland investors may enjoy tax benefits, further boosting Hong Kong stocks’ attractiveness. If the policy is implemented, it will lower mainland investors’ holding costs and increase Hong Kong’s allocation value. Also, under RMB exchange rate fluctuations, Hong Kong, as an offshore market, sees demand for hedging currency risk, prompting capital inflows.
Four、Macroeconomics: Fed Policy and Chinese Economic Data Impact
Macroeconomic factors are key variables affecting Hong Kong stocks. The Fed recently kept rates unchanged but hinted at future rate cuts, easing market rate hike expectations and benefiting risk assets. Chinese economic data: August manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.2, showing economic recovery signs, supporting Hong Kong’s market.
1. Fed Policy: Rate Cut Expectations Ease Market Pressure
At the September Fed meeting, rates were kept unchanged, but the dot plot showed possible 2024 rate cuts, reducing global market liquidity tightening expectations. As an international market, Hong Kong benefits from improved global liquidity, with tech and growth stocks’ valuations recovering. Also, the dollar index falling and RMB stabilizing support Hong Kong’s trend.
2. Chinese Economy: Recovery Signs Boost Market Confidence
Improved Chinese economic data, like manufacturing PMI rebound and consumption growth, shows gradual economic recovery. Weighted stocks in the Hang Seng (e.g., finance, consumption) benefit from domestic recovery, with better earnings expectations and strong stock performance. Also, policy-wise, China’s government’s steady growth measures (e.g., tax cuts, supporting SMEs) support the market.
Five、Outlook: 28,000 Resistance Is Key, Focus on Capital and Policy
Overall, the Hang Seng is in a bullish trend, with technicals supporting an upward move, but the 28,000 resistance still needs to be broken. If it breaks through effectively, further upside space will open, with targets possibly reaching 29,000 or even 30,000. If not, it may enter range-bound trading, with support near 25,800.
From a capital perspective, continuous southbound fund inflows are key support; if funds keep increasing positions, they will push the index up. Policy-wise, implementation of Hong Kong Stock Connect tax benefits and further optimization of Stock Connect will boost Hong Kong’s attractiveness. Also, earnings growth in tech and new energy sectors will power the index.
Investors should watch the 28,000 breakthrough. If the index stabilizes there, they can add positions; if it falls back from resistance, they can buy tech and new energy leaders on dips. Also, be wary of macroeconomic uncertainties like Fed policy changes and Chinese economic data fluctuations.
