<\/div><\/div>Nearly 290 trillion VND capital increase wave: Vietnam stock market faces liquidity test
Keywords:<\/strong> capital increase, stock issuance, IPO, market liquidity, bank, securities, real estate, capital flow, supply absorption, stock dilution<\/p>
Vietnam's stock market is entering a special phase, with pending equity capital near 289.5 trillion VND<\/strong>, while about 70% of issuance plans are still unimplemented<\/strong>. This figure not only reflects huge capital demand from enterprises but also raises a more important question: from now until the end of 2026, does the market have enough capacity to absorb the new supply?<\/strong><\/p>
From the corporate perspective, this is a positive signal showing that companies have the need to expand scale, strengthen financial strength, and prepare for a new growth cycle. But from the market perspective, a large increase in stock supply typically puts pressure on stock prices, valuations, and especially liquidity. In other words, the key is no longer whether companies can raise capital, but whether capital flows are strong enough and selective enough to absorb the new shares<\/strong>.<\/p>
According to updated data from FiinGroup, the total value of issuances and IPOs by listed and registered companies could reach about 289.5 trillion VND<\/strong>, up 86.5%<\/strong> from the actual mobilized amount in 2025 and 53.7%<\/strong> above the 5-year average. This is the largest scale since the active market period of 2021.<\/p>
Notably, not only the scale has increased, but the supply structure is also changing<\/strong>. Since most issuance plans are still pending, the pressure is not evenly distributed but may concentrate in the last months of 2026. If issuances proceed intensively, the market will face a 'supply wave' phenomenon, with a large number of new stocks hitting the market in a short period, directly testing capital's absorption capacity.<\/p>
From the market mechanism, stocks are similar to financial goods; prices are affected by supply and demand. When supply grows faster than demand, prices generally face adjustment pressure. Therefore, the risk here is not only short-term price declines but also the possibility that the gap between corporate expectations and market valuations may widen further.<\/p>
In this capital increase wave, the banking sector<\/strong> is the most watched area. FiinGroup expects the industry to raise about 128 trillion VND<\/strong>, more than 7 times the amount in 2025. Banks such as VCB, BID, VPB, HDB, MBB, and NVB have large capital increase plans.<\/p>
Essentially, this demand is not surprising. Banks need sufficient own capital to expand credit, improve capital adequacy ratios, meet Basel standards, and enhance competitiveness. In an environment where economic growth still heavily depends on credit, bank capital increase will support the entire economy's capital supply chain.<\/p>
However, precisely because of the large issuance scale, banks will face the strongest absorption pressure. If market capital is insufficient to buy all new shares, stock prices may be suppressed, reducing the effectiveness of fundraising. In that case, although the company achieves a capital increase, the actual cost of capital may be higher than expected.<\/p>
Besides banks, securities companies<\/strong> are also accelerating capital increases, with an estimated total of about 48.2 trillion VND<\/strong>. The main goal is to expand brokerage operations, increase margin lending balances, and proprietary trading capacity. This indicates that securities companies are preparing for a new trading cycle, but it also means that industry competition will become increasingly fierce.<\/p>
For the real estate sector<\/strong>, the issuance plan of about 37.3 trillion VND<\/strong> is up 68% from the same period last year, reflecting corporate needs for financial restructuring and replenishing resources for long-term projects. Companies like NVL, FDC, and VRG have clear motivations for capital increase, but the market is very cautious about this sector due to high project capital risk, high leverage, and uncertainty about whether capital can be converted into profits.<\/p>
The key point: not all capital increases are of the same quality<\/strong>. Investors are increasingly distinguishing between capital increases for effective business expansion and those for addressing financial pressures. The appeal of these two stories is vastly different.<\/p>
An important assessment by experts is that current capital flow is more selective than before<\/strong>. Against the backdrop of changes in interest rates, growth expectations, and risk appetite, investors are no longer allocating capital broadly but are concentrating on companies with clear growth logic, efficient capital use, and solid financial foundations.<\/p>
This completely changes the market's operating logic. If in past bull cycles, even on news of an issuance, stocks could benefit from expectations of scale expansion, now investors will focus more deeply on ROE, diluted EPS, capital use plans, and future cash flow generation capacity<\/strong>.<\/p>
A successful issuance does not mean stock prices will rise. If new capital does not bring proportionate profits, EPS will be diluted, and actual P/E ratios may become less attractive. This is a major risk often underestimated by companies when planning capital increases.<\/p>
With nearly 290 trillion VND<\/strong> in equity capital waiting to be raised, Vietnam's corporate sector shows strong capital demand, and this will be an important test for the stock market. From now until the end of 2026, the question is no longer about insufficient issuance plans, but the absorptive capacity of capital flows and the quality of each capital increase story<\/strong>.<\/p>
Companies with clear capital use strategies, sustained profit growth, and good competitive positions have the opportunity to turn issuance pressure into growth momentum. Conversely, companies issuing shares merely to solve short-term difficulties will face increasingly cautious investor attitudes.<\/p>
History shows that every large-scale fundraising round is a test of the strength of capital flows. In this cycle, the most important question is not how much capital companies need, but at what price the market is willing to accept the new shares about to appear<\/strong>.<\/p>Introduction<\/h2>
Sharp increase in stock supply: pressure that cannot be ignored<\/h2>
Banks lead capital increase but bear the most pressure<\/h2>
Securities and real estate: two different capital stories<\/h2>
Capital flow will be more selective, no longer benefiting the entire market<\/h2>
Conclusion<\/h2>
